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Thread: Overachievers?

  1. #1
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    Default Overachievers?

    Not sure where else to put this but really interesting data

    https://blog.betway.com/football/pre...ign=in_article


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    Majorly skewed by the United and Arsenal wins but definitely interesting nonetheless
    Be Pozzo-tive

    Quote Originally Posted by hollywood View Post
    He isn't coming here, no friggin way.

    If he comes I'll eat my poo, and dons poo.

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    Someone else posted this.

    By taking away the Arsenal result, we'd have been in the same place as Swansea on that chart.
    [SIZE=3]Au: Watford's chemical
    SnC[SIZE=1]21[/SIZE][SIZE=3]H[/SIZE][SIZE=1]30[/SIZE][SIZE=3]O[/SIZE][SIZE=1]2[/SIZE]: everyone else's chemical[/SIZE]

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    Yes, the win at Arsenal was the biggest shock result of the season, based on the pre-match odds, ahead of Swansea's win at Liverpool and CPalace's win at Chelsea

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    Quote Originally Posted by Otter View Post
    Someone else posted this.

    By taking away the Arsenal result, we'd have been in the same place as Swansea on that chart.

    Good job we beat Arsenal then...
    For those part of the Euro 2016 sweepstake: Remember to get your guesses in for the winning categories and score prediction games. The sweepstake teams can also be found here: http://www.wfcforums.com/showthread....00#post1234900

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    Quote Originally Posted by miked2006 View Post
    Good job we beat Arsenal then...
    Well as HB1 said we won would be doomed otherwise!

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    By my calculations the bookies would have taken double what the punter would have taken in that scenario.

    No surprise there. Mugs game.

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    So you bet £380 and get £180 back, seems fair to me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by onion8837 View Post
    Yes, the win at Arsenal was the biggest shock result of the season, based on the pre-match odds, ahead of Swansea's win at Liverpool and CPalace's win at Chelsea
    Palace being lesser odds I get but I'm surprised they didn't price the Swansea win higher, they were in absolutely shocking form at the time, far worse than we were coming into the Arsenal game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Otter View Post
    Someone else posted this.

    By taking away the Arsenal result, we'd have been in the same place as Swansea on that chart.
    Wait, so if you take away the best results for each club their position goes down?

    Say it isn't so!
    ...to have a champion mentality you must suffer altogether.
    - Slaviša Jokanović.

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    Does this mean we're top of the league, and if we stay there we will be crowned champions?

    our first trophy for years. Clear a space in the Trophy Cabinet.
    "If you think you can, or you think you can't, you're probably right."

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    With 20/20 hindsight it seems that the odds for a Watford win at Arsenal were good value. Arsenal have since shown they are worse and Watford better than their immediate form at that time suggested.
    Father of the modern Watford FC


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stevohorn View Post
    By my calculations the bookies would have taken double what the punter would have taken in that scenario.

    No surprise there. Mugs game.
    It would be a mug's game to bet on both sides to win in every game of the season...

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    song starts at 2:30 ish

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    Quote Originally Posted by onion8837 View Post
    It would be a mug's game to bet on both sides to win in every game of the season...
    Fair point but to me it's still a mugs game if you employ slightly more sophisticated betting systems.



    Bookies rely on people having short memories and remembering the wins over the losses.. and if you do happen to get 'lucky' these days they'll just shut down your account(s)

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    Yet from what I gather we're not at the top of the bookies' Premier League handicap betting tables which I know some people on here like to take a punt on? Obviously Leicester ran away with that last year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lowerrous View Post
    Yet from what I gather we're not at the top of the bookies' Premier League handicap betting tables which I know some people on here like to take a punt on? Obviously Leicester ran away with that last year.
    The problem with that market is that nearly always someone outperforms the outperformer - everything was right about my £50 at 16s to win the handicap with a 49 point start - given that we stayed up easily when favs to finish 20th - except for Leicester's extraordinary achievement


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