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Thread: Bored WITH Brexiters

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godfather View Post
    But surely that's why we have referendums?
    Yes. I was referring to polling being used as a measure for calling for a further referendum. They've been wrong for the last three major electoral events, even on the day via exit polls.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GoingDown View Post
    Yes. I was referring to polling being used as a measure for calling for a further referendum. They've been wrong for the last three major electoral events, even on the day via exit polls.
    Yes I know, people can't make their minds up, that's why we should have a second referendum or a best of three.
    The Luddites Were Right

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sting View Post
    That's no way to speak of GF
    I've had worse
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoingDown View Post
    Yes. I was referring to polling being used as a measure for calling for a further referendum. They've been wrong for the last three major electoral events, even on the day via exit polls.
    The polls for the last UK election & the 2 referendums, plus the US election have all been massively wide of the mark. Pollsters need to sharpen up their act, whatever they're currently doing it ain't working

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sting View Post
    I agree polls would not really be clear. What I am trying to establish though is whether brexiters honestly believe in the will of the people and would accept staying in the EU if a massive shift in opinion took place such that it was clear that brexit was no longer popular.
    I don't think you can lump all Brexiters in the same category. They will all have different reasons for voting the way they did. Some circumstances have changed, some information has come to light, many of it is still smoke and mirrors, and the other half of it is still balls.
    Whether what has happened in the interim would sway a significant number of people can only be found out by having another referendum as polls are inaccurate. But how many do we have? One every year just to make sure we chose right last time? How many exit votes in a row do we have before we actually exit? That's the politics of never getting anything done.

    Your original question to a brexiter:
    You tell us that a clear mandate was given so we should obey the will of the majority right?
    My answer is yes.
    A clear question was asked with a yes/no answer and it was understood a clear majority be it 10% 1% or 1 vote, would mean leaving or staying in the EU.
    There was no discussion about terms or circumstances to alter the outcome of that vote in advance of that vote, so that can't be changed now and there was no disclaimer to suggest that if the government felt that the public made the wrong choice we would get another chance to correct our error.

    Cameron did a half arsed job but that was mainly because Europe gave him nothing in concessions or by way of levels of exit in advance. It was all or nothing.

    Each side was economical with the facts (Mostly because there weren't any) and in any case the public is on the whole stupid and just goes with clickbait headlines becasue they seem more trustworthy than politicians that never answer the question and just blame the other party.

    For better or worse the government runs the country for the benefit of the population as the population tell them to. On our own head be it if our instructions are right or wrong, but the government are not in a position to ignore us and just carry on as they see fit.
    Views and opinions posted are my own unless commenting with respect to forum moderation. Discussion is good, argument and insult is a sign you've lost the discussion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godfather View Post
    Yes I know, people can't make their minds up, that's why we should have a second referendum or a best of three.
    But the polls say Leave would win again.

    Best of 5?

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    Quote Originally Posted by GoingDown View Post
    But the polls say Leave would win again.

    Best of 5?
    ...and by a larger majority probably. I know a few people who have changed their mind since the referendum, but they are all people who voted remain. I've not yet personally met anyone who's shifted in the opposite direction. I hate agreeing with twhat-face Farage about stuff generally, and I know this is just based on my own personal experiences, but I think he (and the polls) might be right about this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GoingDown View Post
    But the polls say Leave would win again.

    Best of 5?
    The polls said Remain would win. Meaningless.
    I like this club because of the way it is a run
    All the single ladies, all the Udinese...


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    Quote Originally Posted by Moose View Post
    The polls said Remain would win. Meaningless.
    Yes. As I stated on the page before.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Moose View Post
    The polls said Remain would win. Meaningless.
    All polls out I say. It's only fair to the indigenous folk.
    Come on you 'Orns!

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    Quote Originally Posted by GoingDown View Post
    Yes. I was referring to polling being used as a measure for calling for a further referendum. They've been wrong for the last three major electoral events, even on the day via exit polls.
    Exit polls have been extremely accurate for the last three elections, to within a few seats for the two main parties. Pre-vote polling on both the Scottish and Brexit referendums was also broadly accurate (i.e. the majority of polls were within the standard +/- 3% that pollsters use as their margin of error) - all had Brexit as a close result, with about half going for Remain and half going for Leave. Edit: article below says that 59% of the polls had Leave ahead compared to 41% Remain in the last month.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/ind...eu-referendum/

    They were even more accurate for the Scottish referendum - I think it was only the one rogue poll that showed Yes ahead and caused the panic in Westminster. Of course, there were no official exit polls for the two referendums.

    The pre-election polls in 2015 were an absolute mess though. It's obviously harder to correctly poll a non-binary choice, but even then they made a complete pig's ear out of it. Pollsters take a lot of abuse, but I think the lead up to the 2015 General Election is the only time they've recently been way wide of the mark in the UK.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nnnn View Post
    ...and by a larger majority probably. I know a few people who have changed their mind since the referendum, but they are all people who voted remain. I've not yet personally met anyone who's shifted in the opposite direction. I hate agreeing with twhat-face Farage about stuff generally, and I know this is just based on my own personal experiences, but I think he (and the polls) might be right about this.
    There's plenty of time yet but unfortunately it will probably take a few more Vauxhalls and some hyperinflation to grab people attention and particularly those that promoted Brexit need to be able to recognise that for all of their flag waving their original grasp of the situation was misplaced.
    The Luddites Were Right

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sting View Post
    Can I just pose a question to anyone here who voted for brexit. You tell us that a clear mandate was given so we should obey the will of the majority right?
    OK - if - just if - the majority realised that in fact the brexit we are getting sucks and that polls consistently started to show a large majority against brexit - would you tell us that one vote on one day is all that matters or would you argue that democracy demands the will of the people can change and if it does we should recognise and respect that change.
    Put more simply do you believe in brexit now whatever the public thinks?
    Whether or not we leave should be based on the democratic majority, so if there was definite proof that the majority want to remain then we should remain. The complication here is how to actually prove that another referendum is needed, polls don't seem to work any more! Unless there was a consistent large majority in polling I can't see how another referendum would be justified.

    Although consistent polling could happen if something substantial was to change, a bit like how a court retrial happens after new evidence is discovered.

    Personally I think if there was an option for a watered down EU it would win in a landslide. Shame nobody wanted to offer it though!
    #fornicforpromotion

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godfather View Post
    There's plenty of time yet but unfortunately it will probably take a few more Vauxhalls and some hyperinflation to grab people attention and particularly those that promoted Brexit need to be able to recognise that for all of their flag waving their original grasp of the situation was non-existent.
    *fixed*
    http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/77938000/jpg/_77938500_banksy.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Leo Beleck View Post
    Exit polls have been extremely accurate for the last three elections, to within a few seats for the two main parties. Pre-vote polling on both the Scottish and Brexit referendums was also accurate (i.e. the majority of polls were within the standard +/- 3% that pollsters use as their margin of error) - all had Brexit as a close result, with about half going for Remain and half going for Leave. They were even more accurate for the Scottish referendum - I think it was only the one rogue poll that showed Yes ahead and caused the panic in Westminster. Of course, there were no official exit polls for the two referendums.

    The pre-election polls in 2015 were an absolute mess though. It's obviously harder to correctly poll a non-binary choice, but even then they made a complete pig's ear out of it. Pollsters take a lot of abuse, but I think the 2015 General Election is the only time they've recently been way wide of the mark.
    I don't recall the on the day coverage of the Scottish Referendum as I didn't really care, but in the case of the EU Referendum and the US Election, both sets of night coverage clearly stated the losing side had a winning lead up until that day (I'm sad enough to have rewatched it since). It was only when certain events happened throughout the night that opinions changed. To the point where for days after, polling companies were scrambling for excuses as to why they were wrong - again.

    Maybe different polls in different media sources said different things, I remember Sky News showing one saying 58% Remain and another showing 54% Leave so you are probably right that a poll at some point showed results within the margin of error of the final results.

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    Quote Originally Posted by scummybear View Post
    Whether or not we leave should be based on the democratic majority, so if there was definite proof that the majority want to remain then we should remain. The complication here is how to actually prove that another referendum is needed, polls don't seem to work any more! Unless there was a consistent large majority in polling I can't see how another referendum would be justified.

    Although consistent polling could happen if something substantial was to change, a bit like how a court retrial happens after new evidence is discovered.

    Personally I think if there was an option for a watered down EU it would win in a landslide. Shame nobody wanted to offer it though!
    Not sure the Leave side would have been swayed by the 'reformed EU' argument, even if it was a specific choice. Because it was essentially what Cameron bet his house on during the laughable attempt at negotiating.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GoingDown View Post
    I don't recall the on the day coverage of the Scottish Referendum as I didn't really care, but in the case of the EU Referendum and the US Election, both sets of night coverage clearly stated the losing side had a winning lead up until that day (I'm sad enough to have rewatched it since). It was only when certain events happened throughout the night that opinions changed. To the point where for days after, polling companies were scrambling for excuses as to why they were wrong - again.

    Maybe different polls in different media sources said different things, I remember Sky News showing one saying 58% Remain and another showing 54% Leave so you are probably right that a poll at some point showed results within the margin of error of the final results.
    The on the night coverage of the Brexit referendum was influenced by three things - one that the final official poll before polling day was one of the few that was outside the margin of error and was incorrectly seized upon as evidence of a late move by swing voters towards Remain; secondly, Farage's early concession where they assumed that he'd seen private exit poll data; and thirdly, in the absence of an exit poll they spent a lot of time looking at betting odds and probabilities, which clearly isn't a scientific poll. Also, you may not have seen the edit to my post but the article I linked to showed that 59% of polls in the last month had Leave ahead.

    As for the US, I'm sure you're right but they are different polling companies, using different methodologies to the UK so their inaccuracy doesn't have much bearing on the accuracy of our domestic polls.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GoingDown View Post
    Personally I think if there was an option for a watered down EU it would win in a landslide. Shame nobody wanted to offer it though!
    Yes!

    As the EU stands I'm a brexiter. As a trading bloc with certain co operations, joint agencies, zero political power and a sensible budget I'm a remainer.
    It's why I hadn't made my mind up until Cameron had failed to seek any sort of concession.
    Views and opinions posted are my own unless commenting with respect to forum moderation. Discussion is good, argument and insult is a sign you've lost the discussion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sting View Post
    I agree polls would not really be clear. What I am trying to establish though is whether brexiters honestly believe in the will of the people and would accept staying in the EU if a massive shift in opinion took place such that it was clear that brexit was no longer popular.
    What would be the point? We'll be on our bike for good in a month anyway. The other 27 will see to that.

    If remain had won I would have forgotten about it the next day. So, just because the result was a surprise and went against the status-quo, why can't remainers do the same? Instead we still get endless displays of faux angst on an almost daily basis. And now another hand-wringing old has-been crawls out of the woodwork, pretending to be all statesmanlike whereas it's just that he simply can't stand it when he doesn't get his own way.

    Arrogant ****!

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    Quote Originally Posted by KelsoOrn View Post
    What would be the point? We'll be on our bike for good in a month anyway. The other 27 will see to that.

    If remain had won I would have forgotten about it the next day. So, just because the result was a surprise and went against the status-quo, why can't remainers do the same? Instead we still get endless displays of faux angst on an almost daily basis.
    Why does it bother you? You won and you're getting what you wanted, you don't need to concern yourself with all these negative Nigels. You can just have a wry smile on your face, thinking how silly they are worrying about the future when we're all setting sail on the good ship Global Britain, ready to become a trading goliath once more, never bending our knee to those faceless bureaucrats and their cursed laws again. The good people of Boston that you like to talk about so often won't have to put up with hearing so much Polish on their High Street and johnny foreigner suppressing their wages, and taking their houses, school places and clogging up the NHS. The sunlit uplands are just around the corner, so no need to silence dissent - just bask in the forthcoming glory of Great Britain.


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