Watford FC 0-3 Burnley - 23/11/2019

Discussion in 'Match Day' started by Steve Leo Beleck, Nov 17, 2019.

  1. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Okay I relent. I agree. Villa will spend another £100m and be safe, I didn’t realise you said they couldn’t be relegated, sorry. We are doomed
     
  2. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    I’m trying to point out the ludicrousness of your position. I don’t think you understand rudimentary statitistics.
     
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  3. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    It's not ludicrous, but it's not the same opinion as yours......therefore in your mind it is ludicrous.

    Statistics give a false sense of security, always have and always will.
     
  4. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    Exactly.....at last the penny has dropped. Hooray.
     
    Davidmsawyer likes this.
  5. luke_golden

    luke_golden Space Cadet

    There’s nothing lucky about collecting the required number of points to survive in advance of the end of the season.

    We weren’t lucky to survive, we did the job that was needed.

    Hull and their end of season form was basically nothing more than a battered boxer taking a limp swing on his way down, following a savage uppercut that ultimately leaves him lifeless on the canvas.
     
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  6. Relegation Certs

    Relegation Certs Squad Player

    What absolute rot.

    The hospital is on the same side of the road as the stadium.
     
    CleyHorn likes this.
  7. BusheyOrn

    BusheyOrn Reservist

    We need less than an average of 1.2 points per game to survive from where we are and the form table shows us in the top half.

    Those whose glass is half full will feel confident the team is moving forward and will do better than just survive.

    Those whose glass is half empty will say were doomed, were doomed I say Mr Mannering!

    I'm just going to enjoy the extra emotion and passion from a fans point of view as all games will be important, something we haven't had for many years, although I would prefer it at the other end of the table .

    The downside to this is that we have to accept the turgid football Flores produces , maybe he will end up surprising us but I doubt it.

    Lastly, Burnley..... :( I can't imagine the match being anything but what we all expect. It's a shame Cleverley isn't available as he is the type of player we need on Saturday. I am hoping Burnley come to us and continue their poor away form and roll over. Ha! Chance would be a fine thing!
    Prediction 2-0
     
  8. BusheyOrn

    BusheyOrn Reservist

    That lasted! :p
     
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  9. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    With 3 games to go the odds of us going down were huge due to the combined odds of the accumulated results required to do it. That is why 40 points is almost cast iron safety season after season. We finished 6 points clear!
     
  10. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    HB1 definitely doesn’t understand statistics or odds. I do like his posts when he steers clear of these topics though.
     
  11. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    I do understand, but choose not to pay much attention to it.

    Like we've never won at Everton in our history. Does that mean we are more likely to win the next time we play there or less likely?

    Alternatively, this is the worst start to a season ever in our history. This is worse than all our previous relegation seasons. So does that mean will are certain to be relegated? Surely statically or the odds would favour a relegation after a start like this one?

    So, seeing as you believe in statistics and odds, are you going against your own beliefs because relegation doesn't suit you?
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2019
  12. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    We will clearly never agree on all of these matters. And I don't have the time or energy to continue our current debating.

    Two things I am sure of
    1. We both want Watford to stay up
    2. Whilst I do disagree with your posts here on this post , I really enjoy what you post on the forum.

    Roll on Burnley. Eek!
     
  13. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    For someone who doesn’t have the energy you’re surprisingly sprightly.

    But thank you for the comments.
     
    Davidmsawyer likes this.
  14. Forzainglese

    Forzainglese Reservist

    Hmm.. You may have a point.
    My story is my post just came after Pocchetino got the good news and so still stands. (If you believe that, you'll believe anything).
     
  15. Hornpete

    Hornpete Squad Player

    You have a point here, I don't see those big teams realistically going down. Newcastle are having a good spell, Bournemouth seem to be cemented mid table and Sheff Utd, Brighton etc are getting results v the Man Utds Arsenal's and Spurs. Because of this, it might not be 40 needed, but it could well be higher than 34/35. However you've fallen in the media style hype about must win games. And the Mazzarrri season? Yeah could have gone down with that point tally (1/26 chance), but it was never ever "likely".
     
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  16. CleyHorn

    CleyHorn Reservist

    So much hot air and anal analysis over absolutely nothing. I can assure you Quique (and Gino for that matter) won't be indulging in any of it. He'll just be thinking about beating Burnley. Coaches/managers endlessly repeat the mantra 'it's just about the next match'. We might usefully behave in the same way except when it comes to the January window.

    We have 26 games to go. If we win and draw enough of them to finish above three other teams we'll stay up. If we don't we won't. If we beat Burnley we'll have a better chance. If we draw we'll have a worse chance but a better chance than if we lose which would give us the worst chance. Then we move on to Southampton where exactly the same will apply. Each match is an individual entity.

    Our last five matches, since Quique 'fixed the defence' against the Blades have yielded six points. We have lost only one of them. Two of those matches were against the 'top six'. VAR cost us two points at Spurs. We have scored four and let in three. Were we to continue with that form we should be safe.

    VAR has cost us at least four points this season. We should assume a VAR level playing field from here on in. If we hadn't lost those four points we'd now be above the bottom three and our form, across the season so far, should just about have been enough to take us to safety.

    None of the above should be taken as any sort of acceptance of how we've played across the twelve matches so far. There is certainly room for plenty of further improvement building on the last five matches particularly in moving from defence to attack. But it's not been as bad so far as others make out.
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2019
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  17. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Do you really think Pozzo won’t have a minimum target in mind for Flores in the next 2 winnable games given that he can see Man Utd and Liverpool on the horizon after that? of course he thinks further ahead than just the next game.

    Managers use the “one game at a time” mantra in my view because they don’t like to put on record “yeah we really need to get at least 4 points from the next two” because it invites the sack if you fail to hit your self imposed target.
     
  18. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    So if Villa stay up, and we get more points than them, what happens to us?
     
  19. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    It's not strange at all. We had a strong possibility of finishing in top half last season because we spent most of the season there and only dropped out of the final day. The season under Mazarri we were never in the bottom 3 and the closest we got was 6 points. Why would a team like Hull who had got 18 points from 13 games suddenly get 7 from 3 when one of the games was against the team finishing second. We didn't dodge a bullet, 1 team in the last 26 years has gone down with 40 points and again it proved 40 was comfortably enough. I think you are probably the only one who thought we were in any danger.
     
  20. TripleH

    TripleH Academy Graduate

    I agree with all this, spot on, except the hope that VAR will level things up over a season, luck or bad decisions have no chronological timeframe to adhere to, if there was a VAR discrepency league at the end we wont all be on level points.
     
  21. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    I admit I am probably the only one who regularly posts on this forum who thought we were in trouble that season, but in the real world many fans thought this.

    It's sheer arrogance to say we're on 40 points and we are safe. You are not giving the chasing clubs the respect they deserve. So Hull failed in the end, but had they taken 6 points from their two very winnable games, we'd have been level on points going into the final day. With 3 games to go, we were still realistically in trouble. After Hull lost at Palace, for me that signalled survival, but the threat was very real before then.

    There you go again, quoting statistics to give yourself imaginary comfort. We had no control over Hull's results. We lost every match and were sitting ducks. Luckily for us they failed in their chase, but before the Palace defeat they had real momentum. They finished with 34 points in total. You dismiss their collecting 18 points from the final 13 games as nothing, but did it compute that meant they only had 16 points from their first 22 games? It was a massive upshift in form for them and they were winning so many unlikely games. They certainly had real momentum and it was a big surprise when they lost to Palace and Sunderland.

    If you're so wedded to statistics and odds, which you clearly believe in and base your entire argument against, why do you think we'll be ok this season? After all we've started this campaign as the worst in our entire history. Yes, worse than all the other seasons that have ended in relegation. Surely if you apply your statistics and odds against this, you must think we're completely done for. Or is using statistics only used when it suits?
     
  22. Relegation Certs

    Relegation Certs Squad Player

    We'll beat Man Utd.

    Only problem is we'll lose to Southampton.
     
  23. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    I would be surprised if there many fans anywhere who thought we were in danger that season. It was an upturn in form but it needed to be far greater as they were well over half way through the season. I do quote stats but those stats are the facts as well as those facts are that they never got closer than 6 points and the reason teams are near the bottom come that stage of the season is that they haven't many games and Hull were simply not good enough and we were. You say before the Palace game they had momentum, they had won 1 of the previous 4, that's a pretty slow momentum.
    As for this season, we are obviously in trouble but we are not adrift. I do agree that we need to catch up with the pack but I don't believe we need to panic with 26 games to go and start saying if we don't win the next two we're down because clearly that isn't the case. Ignoring what the footballs like to watch, the form has improved and we need to continue a decent run of form to keep us moving in the right direction but that doesn't mean we must beat Burnley, Southampton and Palace to have a chance. If we got 6 points from the next four that would still keep us in touch. Anything above 6 would be excellent in my opinion.
    things change so quickly in football though and I prefer the old cliche, take one game at a time and then see where you are.
    I think we will be ok but it will be closer than it's ever been before since promotion
     
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  24. CleyHorn

    CleyHorn Reservist

    I said we can assume the rest of the season will be VAR neutral. Not that we'll claw back the 4+ lost points.
     
  25. CleyHorn

    CleyHorn Reservist

    Owners, coaches and managers may think anything they like at the back of their minds but the only way to approach our next 26 matches is to take them one at a time. Do that and everything else will take care of itself.
     
  26. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    Well you will be surprised then. You base your entire argument on a notion that 40 points is enough to stay up. Usually that is the case, but not always. You just cannot dismiss a side who are in 18th place, with momentum on their side and who have you in their sights. That is a dangerous animal. It's total arrogance to dismiss that threat out of hand, as so many fans did that season.

    You are still in baby step mode. Only 6 points from the next 4 would be a distaster, IMO. The worst start in our history needs a dramatic remedy. Only a block of wins will do.

    If we only pick up 6 points, that would mean a win and 3 draws or 2 wins and 2 defeats....something like that. We have to prove we can beat the clubs we are chasing.

    6 points from the next 4 would mean 14 points from 16 games. Do you really think we are the only club that will pick up points from the next 4 games? You have to factor in, Villa, West Ham, Everton and Spurs will all pick up points...especially Spurs now. We'll still be a point short of those other clubs like Newcastle, Palace, Bournemouth, Burnley and Sheff Utd as things stand right now, having played 4 more games!! It's those clubs we need to chase down.

    With your approach, our only hope would be for Villa to implode. That would be our only chance of survival, because West Ham, Everton and Spurs will all pull away from their poor starts almost certainly.

    We HAVE TO catch up with those teams on 15 points to maximise our chances of survival. We cannot rely on the hope that Villa will remain crap. Villa have very wealthy owners, who will throw money at it in January if necessary or change the manager. They will not tolerate relegation and are a dangerous team to compete against because of their wealth.
     
  27. TripleH

    TripleH Academy Graduate

    Not sure what VAR neutral even means?
     
  28. I identify as VAR neutral and now I'm offended.
     
  29. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Poch's first game as the new MU manager ? 0-8 ?
     
  30. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    You are correct, I am basing it on the notion that 40 points is enough because since the Premier League began it always has been except for one season. I don't believe people dismissed the possibility of relegation out of hand but they felt we would be ok and that Hull would not get the required amount. What's wrong with that? Where is the arrogance? They were right and also Hull did not have momentum, they had one win in four so you can see why people were confident (not arrogant) that we were fine.
    6 points from 4 games I feel is realistic and if we did this then I'm sure would have made up some ground on some of the teams above us. I haven't said anywhere that none of the clubs you mention will pick up points so not sure why you mention it. Of course they will but it's also very possible that we will gain ground on some of them. The difference is you want this to happen right now and if it doesn't we are doomed. I feel that with two thirds of the season to go it is not absolutely necessary for us to win every game against teams we feel we should beat. To say that it would be disastrous is just building it up to something it isn't.
     
  31. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    "VAR neutral" means that your gender is still being reviewed/checked by VAR and a decision on the correct gender will be made shortly. Reasons for the decision won't be shared with the public.
     
  32. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    I can’t believe anyone on here is seriously criticising Burnley’s style of play.

    Sure their football is bad, but no where near as abysmal as ours. They’ll play us off the pitch on Saturday, but hopefully a few of our aimless hoofs will bounce funnily or catch them unawares and we’ll sneak the victory.
     
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  33. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    In your statistical analysis, you must realise in order to stay up you have to win at least 10 games. Cardiff went down last season with 10 wins. We must start winning games now. We cannot afford to ease our way into the season as a third of it has already gone.

    We have 26 games remaining. We've won 1 game only. Therefore, we need at least 9 more wins, plus the draws in order to get near to 40 points. Or to put it another way, we have 26 games to try and get 32 more points. 10 wins, 2 draws to put it in simple terms. Do the math and you can see we cannot really afford to spurn good winnable opportunities.

    Spurs will be a different proposition from now on. Then you have Leicester and Liverpool home and away, Arsenal away, City home, Chelsea away, United home and away. All those games will be extremely difficult to win, or even get a point from. That's 10 games from the remaining 26 that would be seen as difficult or impossible to get points from. You see, 26 games sounds a lot, but in all likelihood it's 16 games, plus 10 extremely tough games.

    We are not winning games. We need to string some wins together and it has to start now or else where are these wins going to come from? Games will disappear quickly. It needs nipping in the bud right now and the Norwich victory has to be the start of the recovery. If it's not, and we labour to draws with the odd win here and there, we've got no chance. You can only trot through a season like that if you've had a good start to the season, as we had in our previous 4 Premier League seasons. This year it's totally different. We need that mini winning run, or else this win against Norwich will be seen as a false dawn and all hope will quickly evaporate.

    Players, supporters and everyone associated with the club have to believe we can get out of this situation. If you play under pressure week after week, before long that takes its toll.

    Like you said Hull tried but failed to catch up. They were on 16 points from 22 games. That could easily be us, if we do not start the recovery right now.
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2019
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  34. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    I can see your point but I still think there is more than enough games to get us out of this predicament that doesn't mean we have to win the next two or three out of the next four. I also think there are points to be gained from the top 6 sides still. With the exception of Liverpool away I wouldn't write off any game so for me it is 26 games for us to get the required number of points. 40 is what we need to aim for but first of all we need to aim for eleven after Saturday's match
     
  35. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    It seems that you understand where I'm coming from now. I don't think we will be relegated if we lose on Saturday or doomed, but our chances of fighting our way out of it would be severely damaged.

    Put it this way, only one game ago, our season was hanging by a thread. Had we lost to Norwich we'd have been doomed for sure. I don't think there would be many who would give us a prayer, including the players, had we lost that one. So you can see we were so close to being completely out of it. From that point it would take a Champions League run of form to get out of, which we're not capable of doing.

    So we are still in there fighting, but that good run has to continue. Lose the next two, then I'd say we're done for or doomed. This is why it's so important right now, to pick up these wins. Victories breed confidence and relieves anxiety and pressure. It's the only way. There is no alternative. If we lose the next two, or pick up just a couple of points, it would be highly improbable we would be capable of getting the required results for safety. Hopefully we're at the start of a good run which will breed momentum and turn our season around.
     

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