The Great Escape

We should not be fearful by saying we have to win matches. We do and probably another 6 in all honesty. We've got to get these from somewhere so we should be unapologetic in saying we have to beat Everton and Brighton.

I agree that Newcastle and Burnley are now out of it. Any club on 30 or more points at this stage will stay up.

Looking at the table it's Brighton downwards now. In fact there's a mini 5-point gap between them and Newcastle. Brighton, Villa, West Ham, Bournemouth and Watford. Two from those five will be relegated. Norwich have gone IMO.

 

The table below shows the odds of different teams getting relegated. Everton, Soton and Palace I have made have slightly better form. All other teams I have said are the same quality as each other.

Of course, there is still a chance that teams from Southampton to Newcastle could go down. Individually it is unlikely, but between them there is a 14% chance that one of them will go down. Common sense suggest that Burnley or Newcastle should be safe but it is not yet guaranteed - if they only pick up 9 points from the 14 games then they would be in trouble.

• Burnley's worst run so far this season was 6 points from 9 games = 9 points if extended to 14 games.
• Newcastle. I mean Newcastle have been very lucky this season. They have pulled out so many wins when they should have lost. They are bottom of the xg table with just 17 points. There is a reason the fans aren't celebrating what is a good points haul - they know it probably won't last forever.

The odds of the other teams (in the chart below) is largely driven therefore by the opponents and h/a games, and of course points picked up already (as I've assumed all will play to a similar standard).

Up until now I assumed West Ham would have enough to survive, but for me that is looking more and more unlikely. They have picked up 12 points in 18 games and are currently showing no signs of life. Muff have picked up one more over the same period, will their win against Brighton give them the confidence boost to go on a little run?

 

How would that table have looked if we hadn't conceded the last minute goal on Tuesday? Or even if we'd have held on for a win.

 

So the bad news is that we are the 3rd most likely.
The good news is we are only 49% likely to be relegated so I'm taking that as pretty much a guarantee that we will survive.

 

If we had won...


If we had drawn...

 

I would say that chart for most clubs is pretty much how I would think it should be, however I'd never have Villa and Brighton that low. They should be both be around 40%.

 

That shows the importance at the bottom of the table of getting points on the board.

 

I would hope that the Pearson effect, which has not been factored in, would for instance trump the Moyes/Howe effect. So hopefully this is slightly pessimistic.

The good news is after the Liverpool game we had a 72% chance of relegation per this model (with same assumptions) - so we have come a long way in a short time.

 

That's worrying. I gave us a 95% chance after Liverpool. So I either need to add 23 to your 49% giving 72% or pro-rata 95/72 x 49% = 65%. Either way we are now doomed. Thanks for ruining my afternoon.

 

I think that is mainly there was half a season left and we were from memory only 6 points off 17th place.

 

Thought I would share this to hopefully give some of you some more hope (you clearly need it).

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

How it's calculated: https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-club-soccer-predictions-work/ (quite a long read)

 

God I hope they go down this year

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/51277627

 

Has it been lost on anyone, that the three teams promoted in 2015 were Bournemouth, Watford and Norwich...….and currently all three occupy the bottom three positions!!

I know how football works, and I don't like the look of this type of coincidental symmetry.

 

Hopefully they lose by 5 against the scousers and we'll go above them.

 

Yes it was mentioned on another thread.

 

How does football work?

 

If you don’t know now, you never will.

 

West Ham use up their game in hand at home without a point. (It was only Liverpool ffs).
Unhappy bunnies there.
No Moyes bounce.
Lovely owners with that wonderful (sic) Karen Brady paying herself big increase mega salary upsetting their fans.

I thought they were too strong but -
long may they be drawn into the mire.

 

Two yellow teams don’t get relegated in the same season in the modern era.
Narch are ‘as good as’ down.
So we’re off the hook.

That’s how it works.

 

Two yellow teams don’t get relegated in the same season in the modern era.
Narch are ‘as good as’ down.
So we’re off the hook.

That’s how it works.

 

Originally, I thought that on paper a squad containing the likes Diop, Rice, Fornals, Yarmolenko, Anderson, Lanzini and Haller should not be where it is.

However, on reflection, is it that shocking that West Ham are down the bottom when you look man for man.

Diop would easily be our best centre back. Rice wouldn't get ahead of Doucoure or Capoue for me tbh.

Yarmolenkno or Anderson wouldn't get ahead of either of our wingers, if anything they're closer to Roberto Pereyra.

A confident Haller with the team set up for him is probably a better footballer than Deeney but life doesn't work like that and the captain, leader etc etc Troy Deeney probably would not be displaced be Haller either.

How have they got it so spectacularly wrong over there?

 

Lanzini and Rice are overrated.
Anderson is a lazy showpony
Yarmolenko was a great player. Past it.
Haller is alright. But he's never played in England.

 

If Hughes hadn't missed that sitter at home, we might be 6 points above them now.

 

You're just a **** magic 8 ball

 

Three goals from safety and an improvement on where we were three games ago despite indifferent form.

I haven't worked out all the permutations but I'm pretty sure a win on Saturday would guarantee 16th place? Depending on other results, we'll even be 15th if we beat Everton by 4+ goals.

 

Throw in the toxic atmosphere in the stands, stadium issues and unpopular ownership.

 

No I'm at ease. Thank you Sir.

 

I was accused of being buffoon like earlier, for even mentioning Wet Spam as relegation candidates.

 

I think they're very much in the mix.
Their next 8 fixtures are
Brighton home
Man City away
Liverpool away
Southampton home
Arsenal away
Wolves home
Spurs away
Chelsea home
Home games against Brighton and Southampton are huge as I don't see them getting much else. That is a horrible run of away games.

 

Ouch that looks like a horrid run of games.
All depends on what Brighton side turn up Saturday. A draw would be ideal then no points in the remaining seven.

 

Any team that signs Carlos Sanchez deserves to be relegated. Villa made that mistake a few years ago. A truly awful footballer.

 

Happy to oblige

 

No idea how tomorrow's game will pan out, but I hope Pearson will adopt the following attitude that IMO is our best bet of survival.

The problem that some supporters have (besides the gloom about Sarr, the Villa defeat and not signing anyone this window) and that I fear could transmit negatively to some of the players is the mindset that we are in a relegation battle and we need to scrap for every point. It's certainly true we could go down, but we are only three goals from safety and with the teams we have left to play survival is in our hands. If we keep believing we are in danger of going down, then that will add too much tension and pressure (as probably what happened at Villa Park) in performances where we need to express ourselves. As Villa proved, our best form of defence is in attack, we are not Burnley who can allow our opponents 70%+ possession and steal results. Similarly, we need to adopt a positive mindset by going into all our remaining games and believing we can and will win, not play overly cautious and cherry pick fixtures in advance that are apparently our only hopes of winning.

We have at least eight quite winnable games left, and only one (Liverpool at home) that looks virtually unwinnable, and even with that you never know what might happen after the way we performed at Anfield. Let's go for all of 'em!

 

That's the spirit!