The Great Escape

If you want to try to get over this result quicker watch the Chris Packham bbc2 doc tonight. Its the only antidote to supporting Watford FC other than using drugs or drink.

 

Also feel like this could be a killer blow, a draw would have been fine

 

I want to believe that there are 5 wins left in us, though we may need 6.

We have to pick ourselves up and win against Everton now though to keep in the pack and get a run going before Liverpool inevitably smash us.

Sitting off and hoping for a draw....got what we deserved. You have to ****ing die to get 3 points and we drifted back into complacency.

What a disastrous result.

 

The Great Capitulate

 

We will need 6 wins (or equivalent). 5 wins 3 draws, 4 wins 6 draws......that is possible, although means we can only afford 4 more defeats, which is highly unlikely. I don't think we'll win 6 more, but 5 wins 3 draws and 6 defeats is just about possible I suppose. That would give us 41 points, which maybe enough.

We're looking at more hope than realism now though. That's just typical of Watford, to do all the hard work to get back into the equation only to f*** it all up. It's the hope that kills you. Why couldn't they just stay on 9 points and just throw away the season. Why do they have to torment and torture their own fans constantly.

 

Having thrown 5 points away in the last 2 games we are right back in it, and without Sarr offensively we looked woeful. Troubling times...

 

Massive overreaction. We have no divine right to win every game.

We are 4th in premier league form table. We're in the same situation as we were a couple of games ago. We are 2 points off 15th place.

Why assume the last 6 games with Pearson are the anomaly and this is the game that is our form for the rest of the season?

 

There are 5 teams no more than 2 points above us. We just need to better than them. i.e. one win more than them.

 

I don't think it is an overreaction. We couldn't see out a massively important match. We couldn't afford to lose it, but we have so will have to pay the consequences for this. We keep spurning good scoring chances. We've done this all season and it's cost us.

Look at what is still required to stay up. It's a tall order. 5 wins and some draws. It's not beyond us, but I think it's unlikely now. Tonight showed how limited we are without just one player, who's only just come into the side. We already heavily rely on Sarr.

We beat Villa 3-0 with 10-men only a few weeks ago, yet totally screwed a game that should be well in our grasp. Villa are a poor side, yet we struggled.
e've had this great run, and we had a glorious chance to finally ease the pressure off us, but all we've done is put ourselves back in it again.

The pressure is enormous and playing under that strain takes it toll. We HAVE TO beat Everton and Brighton...….and I just don't think we're good enough to do that and if we don't win those, we've got United and Liverpool after.

We could not afford one of those horrible ugly games, that we tend to throw in every season. We cannot do that any more this season, yet we have done. If you walk the tightrope for long enough, you are bound to fall off eventually.

This result and performance has smashed my belief we'll stay up to pieces I'm afraid. Until I see wins in the next two difficult games, I cannot think any other way.

 

With absolute respect as I love your posts, you do have tendency to go from one extreme to the other. Before Pearson was appointed you assured me we had no chance of staying up, when I showed that statistically we did have a chance.

And regarding your comment (not all of it... I need to go to bed)
1. We could afford to lose this game
2. We will continue to miss some chances - we don't have the best strikers.
3. The pressure is the same for all of the teams, not just us.
4. We don't need to beat both Everton and Brighton

And furthermore... Here was your plan for survival

This is what my survival plan would look like.

Man Utd (h ) W...……..12
Sheff Utd (a ) D...……..13
Aston Villa (h ) W...…..16
Wolves (h ) D...………...17
Bournemouth (a ) D....18
Spurs (h ) L...…………...18
Aston Villa (a ) D...…...19
Everton (h ) W...……….22
Brighton (a) W...……...25
Man Utd (a ) L...……...25
Liverpool (h ) L...……..25
Palace (a ) W...………...28
Leicester City (h ) D...29
Burnley (a ) D...……….30
Southampton (h ) W...33
Chelsea (a ) L...………..33
Norwich City (h ) W....36
Newcastle (h ) W...…..39
West Ham (a ) D...…..40
Arsenal (a ) L...………..40
Man City (h ) L...……..40​

So we are 4 points ahead of your own points target. Indeed today we just dropped one point from your very own prediction.

And yet you are throwing in the towel based on one result?!?

xg was 1-2 today. It didn't fall our way. It is in our hands. We have a good manager. A good squad (albeit with weaknesses).

 

It has been clear for a while now, the likely survival point this season is going to be at least 40 points. Currently West Ham sit 17th on 23 points from 22 games, which gives them a 40 point average. Then it's Brighton and Villa on 25 from 23 games an average of around 41 points. Us and Bournemouth are on 23 from 23, and average of 38 points.

So there is a cluster of clubs and you can include Brighton and Burnley. I would ordinarily include Newcastle, but they've done remarkably well and I think they should be safe from where they are now. Clubs on 30 points or above at this stage of the season cannot really be considered.

Anyone who thinks it's going to be 35 or 36 points to be safe is not reading the table. There are no lame ducks this season. There will probably be no more than a handful of points between relation and mid-table this season. You just cannot afford to lose to your rivals. We've lost to Villa, Brighton, Burnley and West Ham. Those defeats have been devastating, but none more so than the one against Villa, as we know the consequences of it.

I think we'll max out at 40 points, which I don't think will be enough this season, as the evidence to date suggests it wont be.

 

Before Pearson was appointed, we didn't have a chance. Had we maintained the direction we were going in, with the coach we had, we had zero hope. We needed someone who would come in shake things up and puts us on an extraordinary run of form. This dream actually panned out, and I called it, hence the thread I created. But it has come to a shuddering halt today.

Football is fluid and changes all the time. This is what people fail to understand. If I say something, within certain parameters that I lay out, then I predict the likely outcome. If those parameters change, then the likely outcome changes also. It's science if you like.

You say we don't need to beat Everton and Brighton, yet then post my (remarkably accurate) predictions, which includes victories against Brighton and Everton.....and that still only achieves 40 points. I don't believe 40 points will be enough this season, and I can't see us getting more than that. Obviously I hope we do, but I can't see it.

For reasons, which I have posted above, I think you're going to need 42 or 43 points to stay up this year and I think that's beyond us. This is why I'm so devastated by tonight's result, as I think it could be fatal to us.

 

You win. I've just sent a card to Pearson to tell him not to bother anymore. We are going down. The exceptional form over the last 6 games was good, A nice interlude. But nothing more.

None of the teams around us have lost to bad teams (aka Villa, Brighton, Burnley and West Ham) , they have just found themselves in the same situation as due to bad luck.

I also agree that it is clearly true 40 points won't be enough. The evidence shows Muff have 23 points after 24 games which over a 38 game season would be ... 36 points...

That evidence is a stinker.

We are down even if we get four more points than them

 

It doesn't matter what Bournemouth are on....THREE go down. You have to take your calculations from 17th place and above to see what you're likely to need in order to stay up. The evidence all points to around 41/42 points being the cut off point this season.

Of course it's not all over, but I think it's unlikely we'll be on the right side of it now. It's just the logical conclusion from what I see....the form of other clubs who are all capable of winning games. As I say, there are no lame ducks this year and that's just bad luck for us. The year we struggle, is the year when everyone else is able to pull out results. It's dog eat dog at the bottom.

Believe me.....we do HAVE TO beat Everton and Brighton to even stand the smallest of chances. You know what's going to happen at Old Trafford and at home to Liverpool. If we don't get 6 points before those two games, we'll be looking down the barrel for sure. Games run out very fast from here on in.

 

Theres little chance it'll need 42 points for survival. Teams will have bad runs and teams will do well, overall the likes of brighton and bournemouth will scrape together a few wins and draws among a number of defeats. We've got 12 points from 6 games but does it mean we will average 2 points a game until the end of the season? No! Villa and bournemouth may have won tonight but theyre still in trouble, like we were still in trouble after beating bournemouth - although from the mood here you'd think we were pushing for top 6. Now we've lostits changed to certain relegation again. Both reactions are kneejerk.

Pearson has it right, theres going to be ups and downs. And theres plenty of work to do. Ido hope Sarr can return soon.

 

1. I understand football is fluid. That is why I thought we had a chance to stay up. Because things could change. My thought was "things could change - we have a chance" - you said "we have 0% chance". Don't claim you called it. Those people you mocked for saying we had a chance of staying up also called it before you.
2. You're remarkably accurate results are probably no more accurate than my friend Mark Lawrenson. Since Pearson has been manager (excluding Liv) you predicted 10 points . We got 14 points. You were wrong by 40%. I don't know what you classify as remarkably accurate but if I rocked up to my manager with a 40% variance he wouldn't think I was accurate at all, but in fact inaccurate.
3. What I find strange is we are ahead of your target by 4 points, and yet with one bad result you think it is all over?!? I don't understand the logic. Over the last two games we picked up as many points as you predicted...and yet now we are doomed!
4. As stated elsewhere it is extremely unlikely 40 points won't be enough. Muff on on target for 36 points. I'm not sure where your 42-43 points comes from. Other than some very unlikely and pessimistic scenario.

 

I disagree. I cannot see why three teams would suddenly nosedive to below 40 points. West Ham are likely to sort themselves out sooner or later. I agree Brighton, Burnley, Villa and Bournemouth are all crap, but they are all getting points, they all sit above us and there's only 4 points between the lot of us.

In all likelihood Norwich are probably gone, then it's two from us, Burnley, Bournemouth, Brighton, Villa and West Ham.

I thought Burnley and Bournemouth would be the two to go, but Brighton must be vulnerable now. This is why we have to beat them. We need to put them below us.

So, really we're in a small group of clubs of five, discounting Norwich, and we've got to finish above two of them. That is our reality.

We must beat Burnley, West Ham, Brighton, Norwich and probably Newcastle. Any other wins, such as Everton or Leicester will be very welcome. If we can do that, then we'll be ok...….but I just cannot see us pulling that off. No margin for error. Alternatively maybe an unexpected win against Liverpool, Arsenal away, United away or City at home. Again.....but I just don't see it.

 

Can you please provide this evidence.

 

Not sure why you don't understand. Under Flores we did have zero chance. Under Pearson I thought we'd survive, hence this thread 'The Great Escape' I created. So I did call it perfectly. It's all there in black and white....anyone can read it so I'm not sure why you're denying it.

When it comes to predicting results over a long period, it's like predicting the weather. The closer you are to the time you are predicting, the more accurate you are. Over a longer time, things change, so the accuracy is bound to suffer to a degree. With Lawrenson, he's predicting just a few days beforehand, so it's not the same at all.

Not sure why you are failing to grasp the logic that's very clear to read. You keep going back to muff...….but that's irrelevant as three go down. We need to be 17th in order to avoid relegation. That means being higher than the team currently occupying 17th place. They are averaging more than a point a game in that position. How can you not understand that? Just look at the table, it's very easy to work that out.

 

Sure

https://www.google.co.uk/search?sou...Jzw#sie=lg;/g/11fj6snmjm;2;/m/02_tc;st;fp;1;;

 

I think there are tw0 different things here that are problems in our viewpoint:

I almost can't be bothered to argue the first too much - but I will. Yes you changed your mind when we changed our manager. Fine. My expectation was that we would change our manger, and this would give us the boost. I believed in the squad, And the xg stats and bad refereeing decisions showed we could easily pick up. This is not you calling it perfectly. I called us as having a chance to stay up before that. We literally had a debate where you said we had 0% chance to stay up. In other words you said we would would definitely go down - whatever (and it was not reliant on the manager situation). Changing anything (even the manager) doesn't change a 0% chance - unless you don't understand statistics... which I have a hunch you don't.

I do understand that 3 go down. I understand we need to be above 18th. I just don't get where you pluck 42-43 points from. I know you like to be aggressive in your arguments but you make yourself look a fool sometimes.

• "They are averaging more than a point a game in that position." WHU have 23 points from 22 games. If they continue that they will get 40 points (39.7 if you could not get full points) {games in hand = Leicester & Liverpool}
  
• Aston Villa have 24 points from 23 games - again 40 points.

I found those stats easy to work out so can point me where I am going wrong and that we will need 42-43 points to survive please?

I understand you are upset by one loss - but I don't understand how how you have overnight thrown the towel in. When actually the demonstrable stats are yes, the result didn't help - but it the last 7 games have.

 

Sorry I might not have been clear. Can you provide evidence why need 42-43 points.

 

After looking at the table and doing some quick maths, every team up to 15th is currently going to finish under 40 points if they earn points at the same rate for the rest of the season as they have for the season so far.

At the moment, there's no reason to assume more than 40 will be needed; 6 teams are currently averaging less than 40.

 

It's true that we're 4 points ahead of target but I think what feels so gutting is that for a while this evening it looked like we'd be 3 points clear and 5 points ahead of Villa. I'd have rather drawn tonight than against Spurs, same number of points but Villa would have remained below us.

I don't think more than 40 points will be needed but that doesn't make the task easier. I agree it is now 2 from Brighton, Villa, Bournemouth and us. Possibly Burnley and West Ham. For a while tonight it looked like Newcastle as well especially with their injuries but yet again they pulled something heroic off. Assuming it is just the first 4 I mentioned it does feel like a toss of the coin.
.
Of course logically there are games to sort it and we knew we'd lose again but emotions are raw after last night. If the players tunnel it positively we stand a chance but if they start doubting then it could get ugly.

 

We won’t go down. It will be Norwich, Bournemouth, Villa/Brighton/Burnley.

We will finish 15th.

Also why are people worried about Arsenal and Man City as the last two games?

Arsenal are rubbish and have been all season. We can comfortably beat them and probably will. Man City will have nothing to play for, they have looked beatable all season. We probably won’t beat them but I fancy our chances more than what I have done in the past.

We will beat Everton. There is no way Pearson is going to allow tonight’s result fly. Every player would have received the hairdryer treatment. Hughes, Kiko and Cleverley will all be back for Everton. As well as Sarr (hopefully). I can see us signing one more player at least before the window closes.

It’s still in our hands.

 

It's a pointless debate. I think we'll need around 41/42.....maybe even 43 to survive this season. I'm saying 43 because the team in 18th could manage 42 points and our GD is so poor we need that extra point.

Personally I think West Ham have the ability to pull away from danger. I think Villa will too, as they will throw the kitchen sink at in in order to survive. That just leaves us, Burnley, Bournemouth and Brighton to chase down. We need to overtake two of those sides. I'm looking at their points total, even Villa and West Ham and to me it's clear they are quite capable of achieving 40/41/42 points. I think that's a logical conclusion considering the league as it stands today.

You may disagree with that, and that's fine, we'll find out in May, but at this moment in time it's looking ominous for us. Basically we cannot lose another game against a relegation contender. That's Brighton, Burnley and West Ham.....all of which are away games.

If you think three teams, other than us, will nosedive in form, again, that's fine, but I see no evidence to suggest this.

I know my club and how we operate. Last night, was the bursting of the Pearson bubble. Big decisions keep going against us, and this has been a constant theme all season, so that can be thrown into the melting pot also.

I can't see how we are able to pick up 41/42/43 points or whatever it is likely to be. I cannot see us getting more than 40 points and that's if we win all our winnable games. We gave it our best shot, we've pulled ourselves back into the mix, but I think we're just going to come up short.

You say we don't need to win the next two, so if we don't beat Everton and Brighton, who will we beat? We'll have United and Liverpool after that. Even if we win our next two games, that will only give us 7 points from 6 games, if you consider United and Liverpool to be defeats.

Win the next two, then I'll say we'll have an outside chance, anything less, then it's not going to happen.

 

Bookies think 38.75 points stays up based on spread mid prices.

 

38.75 points?? I guarantee you, no one will be getting 38.75 points this season.

 

Can’t be proven but my gut feeling is we will need over 40. My reasoning is no one has been cut away and everyone keeps pulling wins out of the hat. It’s going to be a mammoth slog to the last minute of the last game, and we are usually **** at those.

 

Same as before last night, we're staying up with ease.

 

I am also fearful now HB1 but lame ducks generally increase the points needed for survival unless there are 3 of them of course.

 

Honestly I think a lot of it depends on how long Sarr's out for. He's incredibly important to how we play. We don't have the same threat with Pereyra in there, so teams aren't afraid of pushing forward and putting more offensive pressure on, as we saw last night.
If Sarr's back for Everton, I'm still feeling ok for the season. If he's out for a couple of months... Not so much.

 

It’s a mid price. Call it 39 if you want to round up.

 

With Sarr we are/were staying up with ease. Without him I’m to be convinced.

Pereyra can’t play that role, so unless Pearson can get Sarr back, or Gray, Kiko, Pedro, new guy, Welbeck can fill in then it’s worrying, because if we can’t make that formation work then where do we go from here?