Relegation watch

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by IRB, Dec 12, 2017.

?

Are we going to get relegated?

Poll closed May 24, 2018.
  1. No

    87 vote(s)
    79.8%
  2. Yes

    22 vote(s)
    20.2%
  1. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth Squad Player

    BBC website says we have 6% chance of relegation. David they have the same conclusion about 38 points being enough to stay up but 37 probably being a relegation slot
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43049564
    "Using the same formula, Gracenote says 38 points "is more likely than not" to be enough, giving a 62% of staying up, but anything below that and it is a less than 50% chance.

    "At this stage, it is certain that 40 points will be enough to stay up and that a team getting 34 points will be relegated," says Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports."
     
    Davidmsawyer likes this.
  2. Ágætis Byrjun

    Ágætis Byrjun Academy Graduate

    It doesn't feel like only 6%
     
    nfh and PowerJugs like this.
  3. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth Squad Player

    I know. My gut feel is about 25/30%.
     
  4. Malteser

    Malteser Squad Player

    The amazing thing with Brom too is they won their opening two matches this season.

    So it’s 14 points from 25.
     
  5. Jossy

    Jossy Reservist

    No prizes for guessing who they've come closest to beating during this period...........(and that was when we were decent:eek:).
     
    Malteser likes this.
  6. Sting

    Sting Squad Player

    I'll never forgive WBA for selling Nathan Ellington to us
     
    Watfordftw and Ray Knight like this.
  7. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    I would disagree with this - it is unlikely but certainly not certain.

    Thanks for the link by the way.
     
  8. Mighty Mo

    Mighty Mo Reservist

    Lawro has given an interview and has predicted the following -
    The relegated clubs will be -
    Us
    Huddersfield
    Swansea


    "My third would be a little bit left field. Watford, only because they've got this model where they basically have two managers every season and if one doesn't particularly work, they bring a new one in and he does work. But I just feel that they seem to have lost the soul of the club.

    "I just look at them and think they could well be that team that loses the last six games and falls into the abyss."

    Amazes me how he steals a living being a pundit. This insight is brilliant though -
    "So I'm going Huddersfield, Swansea and I'm tempted to say West Brom but I think Sturridge might get them some goals if he can stay fit, which will be a bit of a Lazarus moment for him." Has no one told him about his Liverpool superstar Sturridge?
     
  9. wingco

    wingco Academy Graduate

    He's oblivious to anything that isn't Liverpool, and even then he hasn't got a clue. He hasn't predicted Liverpool to lose in last 3 seasons, says it all
     
    Watfordftw likes this.
  10. Jossy

    Jossy Reservist

    This popped up on Twitter the other day:

    DV73t8CXcAEpH7U.jpg large.jpg

    Assuming its accurate - and it certainly feels like it is - then should we go on to survive this year, I think we can say it was a miracle when you factor this in. Combined with a snake that didn't want to be here, it's amazing we're not cut adrift at the bottom by now.

    I knew it was bad, but put in comparison against the teams we're battling relegation against - it's absolutely shocking. The old cliche "every team has injuries, just get on with it" is not relevant here.
     
  11. StuBoy

    StuBoy Forum Cad and Bounder

    Lawro is an absolute bell piece. A worm of highest order stealing tax payers money. Most people on here could do a much better pundit job than him. Most.
     
  12. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    The
    and for some reason he never rages Watford, we’d be in 19th place per his prediction. Although bizarrely often when he predicts us to get a rare win we don’t!
     
  13. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Not sure what happened there... ignore the ‘the’ quote and rage = rate
     
  14. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    Lawrenson hates Watford, just like most pundits, as they just hate the way we do things. Does he really think we'll go down? I doubt, it's more a case of what he'd like to happen. No neutral football person would seriously consider Watford, going by their current position.

    He's not even tipped West Brom. I doubt any of his picks will actually happen.
     
  15. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    TBF I don't think he does - he's just completely clueless about us, Rather tha having to learn anything he just dismisses us with the most coherent argument he can make "...they've had a lot of managers..."
     
  16. El distraído

    El distraído Johnny Foreigner

    Hmm, I get that a lot of people don't like Lawrenson. I agree that he's not the best pundit, but can we really argue with what's in bold? I can't.

    Maybe I'm alone here, maybe it's because we're in the PL and this league is the one with no soul, but I guarantee you that by this time next year, Gracia will be gone and we'll have a new man in charge. Maybe I'm just slowly falling out of love with football.
     
    nascot likes this.
  17. We hate 48

    We hate 48 Reservist

    Thats a good find. When you add in the red cards we have had-top of PL i think and then yellows for suspension-again i think we are 6th highest for yellows its almost incredible that we are not adrift at the bottom.

    I did read somewhere , i think , that we were top of the list for days injured last season as well
     
  18. nascot

    nascot First Team

    With you 100%. I enjoy it less than I used to. I think it's a culmination of premier league greed, insane player wages, saturation of coverage in the media and the revolving door of players and managers at Watford.
     
    El distraído likes this.
  19. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    Haven't most clubs lost thier soul?

    The majority are run as business trying to make money and use players/managers as imports and exports.
     
    kVA likes this.
  20. nascot

    nascot First Team

    The whole of football across Europe's top leagues has.
     
    wfc4ever likes this.
  21. Bubble

    Bubble Wise Oracle

    I did that predictor thing and was very pessimistic in the results I put in.

    I put us down to draw all of our home games and to lose all of our away games, which put us on 36 points, I believe was 2 points ahead of 18th place. I was also very generous to teams around us in their results.

    We will stay up COMFORTABLY, although it doesn’t feel that way currently - most the sides in the bottom half have to play each other anyway meaning they’re all taking points off each other and not gaining much ground collectively.

    I think we will win at least 3 of our remaining home games - notably Newcastle, WBA and Palace and expect us to pick up draws at worst against Burnley and Bournemouth. Not sure about Everton. I also think we will go to Huddersfield and get a point and may even possibly nick a point off of one of the big boys. That seems to be Javi’s forte to go to somewhere like Arsenal and get a result!

    We will finish on at least 40 points - at least!
     
    Ray Knight likes this.
  22. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    1.77/1 double for Everton and West Brom bothto draw/win v us.

    That means we get at least 3 points or I win.
     
    PhilippineOrn likes this.
  23. Ray Knight

    Ray Knight First Year Pro

    Lawrenson knows nothing about the soul of our club. Just because we appoint coaches not managers and have a model that he does not like means we are relegation material. Utter tosh! Refuses to believe WBA will go down or that Stoke or Southampton could drop. I think it highly unlikely that ourselves will go down. The table does not lie. My only fear is that the bar has been raised because the gap of 4 or 5 points is pretty narrow at this stage from 10th to 20th. None of this is considered by Lawrenson - he just goes with prejudice to judge the undeserving. I do believe we will survive and 6 per cent isprobably about right. The only certainty is the EPL sold its soul to TV several seasons ago so can't disagree on that one.
     
    Chumlax likes this.
  24. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    I probably know as much about other premier league owners as Mr Lawro knows about us, however from what I read on other message boards and what protests I see around the grounds, we seem to be one of the only clubs where the chairmen actively encourage player interaction with the fans and one of the few teams that the fans actually like their owners.

    It's a shame that he only sees and bases his opinions on the skin deep and shallow media coverage of the club or just throws out cheap soundbites to rise opinion rather than spending the time to come here and speak to the owners and fans before making such accusations.

    I fear the soul he thinks has been lost in our club is actually the soul he sold himself to the tv broadcasting devils.
     
    cthulhu, Chumlax and Ray Knight like this.
  25. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason The One and Only

    Yeah! This is a lot more realistic than the survey the other day that said there were 3 or 4 other teams with worse injury problems than us. They used the amount of injuries teams had, rather than the length of time the injuries lasted.
     
  26. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth Squad Player

    Good man !
     
    Meh! likes this.
  27. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina Squad Player

    That’s poor odds? We’re 5/4 to beat Everton and at worst evens to beat West Brom. Laying both of those in a double pays nearly 3-1?
     
  28. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    Pardew is a man with a great future career in management, he deserves another chance "somewhere":

     
  29. According to my worst case table, the minimum required points to stay up is 47. Using this http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/ predicting everyone in the bottom half beats everyone in the top half every game, and where if two teams are in the same half the home team wins, (so no draws) the bottom 3 would be Everton, Southampton and WBA on 46, 46 and 41. Of course this is totally meaningless except to demonstrate that everybody will be taking points off everybody and (famous last words) we should be absolutely fine.


    (if this mental chain of events did happen, we'd be eighth on 51 points)
     
    Ray Knight likes this.
  30. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    I thought our odds v Everton were strangely low. The are 4/6 double chance so it's almost worth the bet on that alone.
     
  31. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth Squad Player

    I keep reading how reassuring it is that "everyone is playing everyone and so taking points off eachother" as being good news. Its not of course. Teams below us don't need to win most of their games to get to 38/40 points. They just need to average about a point a game. So when they play each other they are guaranteed a point each if they draw or one picks up all 3, an average of 1.5 for the 2 teams. A combination of matches with 3 points won would be bad news if the wins and losses were evenly distributed. I do think we will be ok if we pick up 2 wins and 2-4 draws but lose the next 2 home games, which isn't impossible, and we will be right in it.
     
  32. mrciff

    mrciff Reservist

    Oh well, last in = first out and all that.
     
  33. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    Somebody needs to tell Rob Lee Newcastle haven't been a big club Premier league wise since the turn of the century..

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43069683

    I know they expect more for the crowds they get but are the Geordies dreaming a bit when asking to compete against the very best - and yes I know they beat Man U at the weekend.
     
  34. Maybe you are, and maybe you are looking for a quick and easy reason to file for divorce.

    I don't get how getting rid of flawed coaches represents a loss of soul, rather than part of the most emphatic acts of ambition this Club has seen since Elton first became chairman.

    It is amazing that so many fans criticise the pundits for knowing sod all, and then criticise the Club in a manner that shows how little they grasp the model themselves.

    Fair enough people want to criticise Gino or the Club; they are not beyond it. But any argument that we should have acted like every other yo yo club, or achieve Richarlison or Deulofeau type coups with every signing we make, for fear of alienating fans so loyal that competing in the PL with players desirable to the biggest Clubs in the world makes them wonder whether there is anything to love about Watford FC.

    For Meisters sake, I'll keep the actual words I am thinking to myself.
     
    EB Hornet and Rozerhorn like this.
  35. Keighley

    Keighley Reservist

    The problem, as I see it, is that Gino’s failure to date to find a coach who isn’t “flawed” (Joka possibly excepted; and he was probably unlucky with Silva) gives pundits licence to interpret the process of frequent replacement as the norm, rather than as a reasonable strategy to keep us going forward.

    There is, I think, a bit of xenophobia involved here, but mainly just a lack of understanding of the “model”. Nonetheless, I can comprehend why pundits think what they think, and until Gino succeeds in getting the right man for the job, they will carry on thinking it.
     
    cthulhu likes this.

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