Day 6

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by Harrow Orn, Jul 3, 2017.

  1. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    Yep. I had the same thought. Same position as me. If steve harrow was the traitor then I'd understand both wolves throwing him under the bus, but not another wolf.

    Also, why did you assume it was the beta wolf Dom?
     
  2. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Agree with your first point but can you explain (in idiot proof terms for my benefit) how it links to your conclusion about NW Orn?
     
  3. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    As its so quiet, I thought I would offer a boring fact to the village...

    Today is the 183rd day of the year and now that it is past midday, you officially in the 2nd half of the year, which means that you are nearer 1st January 2018 than 1st January 2017 !
     
    PowerJugs likes this.
  4. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    NW Orn had no cross references with steve harrow in my chart, that it until steve harrow voted NW Orn after I posted the chart. Did he assume that if I were to cross off the link between them?

    Another thing that's not been considered, is that if the second message on Friday was the seer then could BRLR be evil?

    A quick check of his voting:

    D3: SLB (same as steve harrow and after we'd generally acquitted him)
    D4: Voted Grrwood - as did a lot of people.
    D5: BRLR did vote steve harrow but it was the last vote, when the outcome was known. Hiding behind his vote?
     
  5. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    I was in Peru on New Year's Eve, which is 5 hours behind the UK, therefore I will cross that point at 2:30pm.
     
  6. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

    Any sign of Message 2?
     
  7. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    What evil is actually left? 1 alpha wolf and 1 traitor right?
     
  8. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

    Yeah.
     
  9. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Have you sent it to Harrow Orn yet?
     
  10. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    Do we know steve wasnt alpha?
     
  11. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    No but doesn't the Beta step up to Alpha if the latter dies?
     
  12. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

    Think so. So long as there's a Wolf and Seer there will always be 2 messages a day.

    This assumes both post though.
     
  13. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Would be incredibly unhelpful for the Seer not to post at this stage...

    So can see why you're desperate for a second message!
     
  14. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

    Yeah. From what you all see you'll only have one Message you can work off as it stands, so if you all did vote for me I couldn't blame you, but it would be Grrwood again. The evidence against me being Evil is there, but there's no-one else you can vote for at this stage easily as it isn't obvious who else it could be.
     
  15. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    I think PJ is good after his vote person and timing yesterday like me.

    You on the otherhand are misdirecting and accusing all over the place.

    Much as we were hailing SLB as the best move of all time if he was evil, your "spreadsheet" could prove the best misdirection of all time...?
     
  16. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    The seer has no reason not to post a message at any stage.

    The wolf on the other hand can choose depending on how the game is going

    If the 1st message is from the wolf, then you just have to sit and wait for the seers message to come through
     
  17. NW Orn

    NW Orn First Year Pro

    Otter the more you post the more suspicious I become of you.

    I've checked back through your posts and you've put all of these people in the frame

    Steve Harrow day 2 #40,
    SLB day 2 #79,
    HH24 day 2 #171,
    Me day 3 #115,
    PJ day 4 #132
    WAS day 5 #36,
    Pozzman day 5 #38,
    Meh day 5 #38,
    hornetgags day 5 #213,
    BRLR day 6 #39

    That's a hell of a lot of names. Of which 7 are still alive today.

    The more confusion you spread the more likely we are to lynch the wrong person.
     
    BigRossLittleRoss and Meh! like this.
  18. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    Ifvwe get no second message then this is from the seer.
     
    With A Smile likes this.
  19. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    In fairness his spread sheet was only put together 20 minutes before he posted it, so he probably didn't have enough time to analysis it all.

    Agree @NW Orn although I have been as guilty, may be not with so many people. I think I should appear on that list 3 or 4 times, as @Otter did stand his ground and fight back when i was pushing him for an answer to a question on day 4
     
  20. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

    I can tell you it isn't, but apart from the evidence provided by others ultimately there's nothing else people can go on, annoyingly. It would also be the first time a Seer hasn't posted first this game, if we believe the Message from yesterday calling BRLR is Correct.
     
  21. NW Orn

    NW Orn First Year Pro

    My list only included the 1st time a name was mentioned. All these people were mentioned multiple times.
     
  22. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    A second message will come:

    If the first message was the Wolf, the Seer will want to respond to put us back on the right track
    If the first message was the Seer, then PJ is Evil but is heading to the gallows so the Wolf can't just let that happen. They'd have to name someone else to give him a fighting chance.
     
    Meh! and PowerJugs like this.
  23. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    steve harrow was EVIL, I called him out on Days 1 and 2 for him posting for the first time shortly before the wolf's message on both days.
    SLB was named EVIL on Day 2, see my Day 3 post to show why I believe him not to be evil.
    HH24, can't remember.
    You because I felt you were posting in a strange way, I backed it up by voting for you on Day 3.
    PJ you are wrong, others highlighted PJ, all I said was he was worth a look from the seer.
    WaS I strongly believe to be the traitor mainly because he is the only one pressing me about you, on Day 5 I did originally think that he was Alpha.
    I never mentioned Pozzmann until after he was dead, simply because I said I did some analysis and found his posting frequency was low and his voting timing late.
    Meh and hornetgags were both implicated by my chart, which told be that if NW Orn was innocent (which we still don't know yet) then voting/accusation history shows that hornetgags was completely untouched by everyone and that all but one wolf combination involved hornetgags and that was With a Smile & Meh. My chart also showed that by hornegags voting early for steve harrow that the only person who can be associated with steve harrow was YOU.
    Regarding BRLR, he was not on my chart because I believed that the first message was the seer (hence why I didn't vote for you), so all I did was reason that if BRLR is EVIL then his voting pattern fits.
     
  24. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

    On a side note, if my thinking is correct I think I just sussed who the Seer might be. Doesn't help my situation at the moment though. Not naming as that only helps Evil.
     
  25. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Pretty sure I worked it out on Friday but would like to see a second message today to confirm my thoughts.

    Anyway, I predict a second message will arrive within the hour.
     
  26. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    Anonymous Message 2

     
  27. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

    You called it.

    Well, I know who I'm voting for as I know that 2nd message is correct. Whether the rest of you do depends upon whether you believe I'm affiliated with Evil or not. I was suspicious of WaS at times but that answers that.

    I very rarely vote without certainty.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
  28. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    I think the second message is the Seer and NW Orn is the Traitor.

    Would explain why he voted for WAS rather than Steve Harrow and why Steve Harrow was happy enough to vote for NW Orn when it was becoming clear it was one or the other.

    Still not 100% on who the other Wolf is though!

    Edit:

    If I'm right about the messages, then we know Squibba, Dom and WAS are all good.
    I know I'm good, and the Wolf will have tried to fit up PJ.
    NW Orn is the traitor.

    That leaves Hornetgags, Meh, BRLR and Otter in the frame for the Wolf. Otter makes a very strong case for it not being him with his targeting of Steve Harrow.

    So most likely candidates are BRLR, Hgags and Meh... the net is tightening...

    Or, I've got it all wrong and when we lynch NW Orn, he turns out Good and I have to go back to the drawing board for the millionth time!
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
  29. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

    To recap:

    All Messages are in order of posting.
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Day 1 Messages:

    "'Good morning everybody, it is your seer speaking. I viewed Ashdonwfc this morning, he is GOOD'

    "Hello everyone! I wanted to see whether anyone stood out more than another before viewing today. It is such pot luck. Went for Diamond and they are good. I am going to try and mix up the style of writing to avoid the wolf copying me in the next few days."

    We now know both are Good and Dead so these messages are irrelevant.


    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Day 2 Messages:

    "Ok everybody, I know the first day is difficult. People need to remember that shouting accusations about doesn't help anybody at this stage. Today I decided to view DAFT ROW he is EVIL. I also viewed Ashdon yesterday, he is Good."

    "Morning villagers. A mixed night last night. But fortune today as I viewed Steve Leo Beleck and he is evil! Ashdon was viewed as good by me yesterday. Shame that the wolf jumped at that knowledge. I do not know if Diamond is good or bad as I did not view them."

    Daft Row was found to be Good, which SLB then claimed to be the Harlot. Because no-one has challenged him on this it is still NOT guaranteed but he is very likely to be the Harlot and therefore Daft Row was the Tinker. Again. Poor *******.

    We can't rule out SLB playing the largest bluff in Werewolf history but it's very unlikely now unless the real Harlot has been quiet waiting for the right time. I'm personally inclined to believe he is the Harlot.


    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Day 3 Messages:

    "Ouch, yesterday's result was very difficult to take. Please forgive me for guiding you towards daft row, he was the tinker. Today I viewed SQUIBBA, he is GOOD. I did not view SLB, as I believe that he is probably the harlot."

    "Right everybody, last night was a shame but it was me who viewed SLB as EVIL so that helps a lot. I viewed OptimisticHornet today, he is GOOD."

    We know OptimisticHornet was the Seer and he would not view himself. Therefore the Squibba Message is from the Seer if we agree.

    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Day 4 Messages:

    "Ok last night has been expensive fellow villagers. Please think very carefully about your votes and messages. Today I viewed Dom, he is GOOD. I still believe we can win this."

    "Morning all, disappointing lynching last night. Thought about viewing main players behind that but then thought WAS and Grrwood voting for each other was unusual with wolves knowing each other and bingo. Grrwood is EVIL."

    Grrwood was found to be Good, so that means the 1st Message is TRUE. Dom is Good.

    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Day 5 Messages:

    "Sorry for delay. I am back up seer and had to quickly read through messages. We were tricked last night but we will not let it happen again. You all know Dom is Good. I viewed BRLR today and he is Good. Does not help much but narrows who might be evil."

    "Hey! The first message is a lie, I am the backup seer. I decided to view NW Orn as Otter who is an experienced player has been adamant that NW is Evil and we seem to be getting nowhere by following the mass opinion so I thought maybe if we listen to a quiet yet persistent minority they may be right and bingo! NW Orn is Evil!"

    BRLR is very likely to be Good via last Day's shenanigans

    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Day 6 Messages:

    "Great result on Friday team! I posted 1st on Friday and today I have decided to view PJ. Its good news - he is Evil! We are now in the driving seat and tonight I believe team good wins."

    "Hey guys, Just viewed WAS as there's been question marks over him for a lot of people. He's came out good. Don't read too much into the "and bingo" thing, it was genuinely an oversight as I didn't have time to catch up once I discovered I was the new Seer.NW Orn is Evil."

    WaS is Good. That means NW Orn is Evil as per yesterday's message; whether Wolf or Traitor we don't know yet. This helps put a few pieces together.
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    What we know then:

    Confirmed Good (Omitting Dead):

    Squibba
    Domthehornet
    WaS

    Likely Good:

    SLB
    <Anyone he has stayed with and he announces>

    Undecided:

    Powerjugs
    Otter
    Meh!
    Hornetsgags
    BRLR
     
  30. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    I'm not having a lot of time to look at things at the moment. Will be home just after 5 so will review then and pop in and out when I can.
     
  31. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    OK, I'm lucky enough to know that the 2nd message is from the seer ( and slightly relieved ).....

    We are down to 5 if it is NW that is lynched.

    I also think i know who the seer is now - thank you
     
  32. NW Orn

    NW Orn First Year Pro

    SLB why didn't the 2nd message do as you sensibly suggested as that would have settled the confusion from Friday.

    All that's happened is #bingogate has been brushed off as a "slip-up" and I've been named as evil again.

    If the 1st message is seer then PJ could still be evil

    If the second message is wolf then he's just repeating what he said on Friday in order to distract attention.
     
  33. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

    Because my behaviour and actions indicate someone who is Good NW. Read previous comments.

    This is the first time this game I've accused anyone of being Evil up to now as I hold back until I am absolutely certain with the use of Messages and established logic. I'll probe other people's logic and conclusions to make sure we're on the right path but I don't accuse unless certain. It's what helped suss Steve Harrow and it will be your demise too.

    Whether it's today when I'm proved correct if me or you are Lynched or tomorrow if eaten I'm by a Wolf and turn up as Good you're dead either way and Evil will be down to 1.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
  34. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    PJ you've twisted it a bit as you've made the D6 analysis fit your preferred interpretation, you cannot say for certain that WaS is good nor yourself for that matter:
     
  35. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

    I can. I know I'm Good but at the moment without the Seer viewing me I cannot prove it the same way you can't. But as I do know I'm Good, WaS is Good following that message.

    Otter, I haven't accused anyone of being Evil this game. I've probed others and made sure their Logic ties in so we make the right decisions and part of that lead to Steve Harrow being lynched, but not once have I accused others as I could not say for certain they were Evil. This is the first time I've accused anyone of being Evil because I am certain of it. I didn't accuse NW Orn yesterday because I wasn't certain which message was from the Seer yesterday.

    Hell, look at the tone of language I'm using. I've been diplomatic and otherwise neutral as I didn't know the alignment of others and therefore give them the benefit of the doubt until the Messages prove otherwise. I haven't once done something like this until now.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017

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