April Fool Werewolf 2020 Day 1

So Nisman named evil and BigRossLittleRoss named good.

Nisman could also be good and the fool/tinker.

And Brlr could be evil and the wolf didn't realise it.

Despite this, what are the stats on which of these 2 are more likely to be evil?





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What made you change your mind? When the first message was first posted you had a punt at what it might mean with the "three players have numbers in their name..." post. Now you've decided it's random nonsense. Just curious.

 

Just initial thoughts really. Doesn't mean that they aren't nonsensical.

 

I don't believe that the first line of message 1 is random nonsense, it's designed to be uncopyable whilst hinting who they are.

 

Fair enough.

Anyway, none of us other than the authors of the messages really know what their intention was and there are no patterns yet so agree that theories aren't particular useful at the moment.

 

My girlfriend is in Mensa ( what shes doing with a thicko like me I know) and she says that the first clue reminds her of questions that she does in her brain training, that are based upon the idea that numbers represent the letters in the alphabet. an example she gave is 2+1+20 = BAT.

Sounds a bit obscure to me tbh but I just do what she tells me.

Second clue could be the seer ( if it is referring to me) but as many others have said , why would you be cryptic if you are the seer. Seems like the second could be an attempt by wolf to copy lyrical style and in the process forgot what a seers primary aim is ( ie name who they viewed).

 

I don't like that second message one bit. if its the seer who posted that, then you have been too cryptic for your own good. if it does indeed refer to bigrosslittleross then next time say so.

to be honest, my gut feeling today is that the first message is the wolf, perhaps trying to make us thing they are setting up a style. I do think the second message is the seer, as surely a second message from a wolf would implicate someone else as being evil rather than good. either way unfortunately I think we have no choice but to vote for Nisman? if Nisman is good then we are maybe a little bit clearer about the origin of the second message. it doesn't help us much though because that message was so damn cryptic, it only partially clears bigrosslitteross at the moment.

note to the seer, if you wrote the second message be clearer next time please.

 

I concur with this. Also, I don't like having to do homework to figure out who they are talking about. I think both Seer and Wolf are trying to be too clever by half, which plays into the hands of team evil, by sewing confusion amongst the rest of the village.

 

Well Nisman hasn't posted yet, which could mean 1 of 15 things...

1) He...

I can't be bothered.

 

Unless anyone can persuade me otherwise, I'm seeing that Nisman is the obvious favourite to vote for so far.

If the wolf names Nisman evil, then he could be evil, but could not.
If the Seer names Nisman evil, he's either evil, or we eliminate a fool/tinker

If the Seer names BRLR good, then he's good, so let's not hang him
if the wolf names BRLR as good, then it doesn't tell us much either way, so best not to hang him whilst Nisman is far more likely to be a baddie.

Any disagreements?

I can't be arsed trying to work out the cryptic crossword stuff at this early stage.

 

I'm a member of FENSA if any of you want your doors or windows certified (I'm not. Just a **** gag).

 

Sorry all, work has been manic.

Why would a seer copy the wolves style, and not the other way around?? It makes no sense for the seer to copy the wolves style.

The seer needs to have a consistent style. They also need to be clear who they have picked on all days leading up to the current day, and who they have picked that day.

 

Agreed, day 1 is hard enough, we have no option other than to vote Nisman. Particularly so as he hasn't been around to defend himself.

 

I assume the fool is only valid today and returns to a normal villager tomorrow?

 

Nisman is the clear pick I’m afraid.

 

Woops, forgot this was starting today! Catching up now, be right back.

 

Any chance the Mensa members could crack the message then instead of just telling us how smart they are?

 

That was my assumption.

 

Ok, taking the first message:

If numbers are letters, and letters are numbers,
They match from the start, and the truth lies within."

Nisman
Ninety Four

However I can't see any clues except the first sentence does contain seer.

The second message:

Good afternoon kind villagers
I’d view you all if I could
But I looked at the varying in size man
And saw that he was good

Beware the impatient wolf
They messaged earlier you see
With the right choices made today
A successful lynching there might be

All the best

Any players called Gibabtwaa in the game? Or is it ancient Aramaic for Seer or Wolf?

 

Whichever message is from the Seer is a bit over the top IMO, sometimes easier just to keep it simple.

I think this is a fair summary and worth looking back on in the coming days.

 

Could've practised what you preached then, rather than adding credence to the suggestion of a pretty simple (and not at all Mensa level) alpha- numeric code!

 

I was going to vote for nisman, but instead accidentally voted for myself. Seems I'm just a sucker for a lynching.

 

Good plan! Like the bit where you pretended to be a Mensa member ;-)

 

Pile on Lowerrous, everyone!

 

You're all welcome to join my club...DENSA

 

I like your logic, but mainly agree because you said no to lynch me.

 

Going to have to go Nisman, not much else to go off.

If there are 3 evil players there's a 1/6 chance that our Seer got lucky.

Sorry Nis.

 

I have to do some work now so must vote before I dissapear.

Nisman is my vote.

Sorry Nisman if you re good, but it seems the only clear info we have to go on, especially as the second message seemed like an attempt to copy style of first and why would a seer do that.