Weredeer - Day 4

HH24 has been quiet and was quick to latch on to blaming someone else here: "That's a good point about the timing of Meh!'s post about there being a tinker rather than a traitor. I have a horrible feeling that the Seer might have found the tinker. In the absence of any other message it's all we have to go on at the moment, though."

Dodgy.

Diamond, in response to you, most the time I'm just thinking out loud and share all possible scenarios and have them validated by everyone on here

These are my notes so far:

GOOD: Cassetti's Beard, Diamond, Grrwood

UNDECIDED: Me, HH24, Cthulhu, Otter, Steve Harrow

Vote for one of the Undecided but trust me it's not me, complete opposite in fact.

 

Haha yeah yeah!

Your post reeks of a desperate wolf.

 

I don't see how you can to the conclusion about Diamond being definitely good.
As for CB - we never ascertained which message was real yesterday (both were poorly written), I'd say 75% good at best.

Remaining:

Cassetti's Beard - due to two messages yesterday was named good in one; on balance probably is good.
Cthulhu - highest poster over each day; usually the wolf would lay low is this a bluff of sorts by posting high and getting away with it as there appears to be an inexperienced wolf
Diamond - very difficult to work out either way.
Grrwood - the only player guaranteed to be good.
HappyHornet24 - possible inexperienced reindeer.
Otter / Me - I know I'm good but I can understand that like Diamond there isn't anything to go on.
Squibba - I acccused yesterday but by the end thought better of it. Accused today by a message.
steve harrow - I suspected yesterday as has been consistently quiet (opposite of cthulhu). Accused today by a message.

+ I think I know who the seer is.

 

THIS.

I'm the only confirmed good and I suspect that I'm for the chop tonight anyway after being saved by the guardian. I'm still not sure on CB but in my opinion we cannot justify going for anyone other than those named evil today.

I'll be having another look at the messages later but surely we have to go for either Squibba or steve harrow.

 

But then you would say that wouldn't you?

I know I'm good. If you think I'm evil or even just the tinker, then you vote for that. Hopefully enough other people will look again at yesterday's messages and determine which is from the seer and which is from the wolf. Then establish which is which today and make your mind up.
Jellyman is known to be good. Cassetti's Beard is in no way declared good. And if it comes to it and evil hasn't already won (if that's possible tonight?) then team good will know who to target.

 

Oh yeah,

Not sure how I established Diamond is, my bad.

I do believe CB is good though because I'm convinced the first message yesterday was from the wolf and he got lucky / smart.

 

Both of yesterday's messages were badly written. The first may have been in a rush but was hugely inconsistent with the messages from days 1 and 2. Message 2 had more body but there were a couple of points that didn't stack up as I stated last night (1) The writer expected the reindeer to write and (2) with Jelly having been cleared by the earlier message if this were the seer surely the seer would have double checked.

The fact that Jelly was later to be found good is neither here nor there in my opinion, it doesn't necessarily exonerate the first message.

 

All messages so far...

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

Day 4

Another thing on Day2 the message was sent to Meh very early, on day three it was sent at the beginning of the day but was not declared early. Day 1 message and Day 3 message 2 are at similar times. Style also suggests that Day 3 message 2 and Day 4 message 1 are the same person.

Therefore unless he has a convincing case to prove that the second message is genuinely the seer's then steve harrow will get my vote later.

 

Cheers otter, this is useful.

Other than SLB, was HarrowOrn chucking any names around? Will be worth looking back I think.

 

As for names, unless steve harrow convinces me otherwise, I shall be voting him out.

Tomorrow the seer must take a look at HappyHornet in my opinion.

 

What musn't happen is for votes to be spread, so despite wanting to go for Squibba, (apologies for thinking there was a traitor), I'm happy to go with Harrow as well. However, I'd like to hear more on your Happy accusation as I don't see any evidence?

 

Really hope it's Harrow, will give us a fighting chance.

 

Happy has been very quiet, a viewing wouldn't hurt IMO. Likewise I know I'm good and I have no objection to being viewed by the seer; so by defending herself from a potential viewing I would say that's a touch suspect.

She also said she was putting up a tree today, there is no greater reindeer magnet than a Christmas tree.



Edit: Just seen Happy's comment about being Happy to be viewed.

 

Mike, you is deeeeed.

Get out.

Edited by Mod!

 

What the hell haha.

 

Ooo what did it say?

 

You're all wrong about me being evil of course but there you are. Some of you know this, some don't. Squibba gets named as evil too and the bad guys ignore that.

I'm perplexed why anyone good can't see which messages is from the seer and which from the wolf yesterday and today but that's life. I've never gotten to the end of a werewolf yet! This time hadn't been helped by a particular couple of players being inactive. That would have made quite the difference.

 

I've gone and voted for Squibba as the only other person named evil but doubt it'll make a difference. I suspect Cthulhu is particularly evil! Prime suspect for tomorrow team good!