Someone just text me to say a 30 million plus adds fee has been agreed. It's on "Transfer exchange show" - Sky? But this was on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Thiago6i_/status/1306688618468200454
It's not complicated. Rumours that Liverpool have made s bid, or are at least interested, will provoke bets on Sarr joining Liverpool. The bookies will therefore reduce the odds I'm not convinced Sarr will stay, but Twitter rumours and bookies odds are two sides of the same coin.
Those rumours have been around and consistent for months and the odds have generally stayed the same, it's only today that it's suddenly jumped massively. This isn't 7/4 to 1/2, it's a huge jump to 1/10 in almost an instant. Again, bookies are not stupid. It's not hard to believe that if something happens, they will often know about it ahead of time.
Today's 'news' doesn't really add anything. It's been out there for a while that Liverpool are very interested in Sarr, have been watching him carefully etc, but are probably unwilling to stump up how much we want for him. Today's news didn't say they had bid for him or anything, just that they are pretty interested in him, but we knew that already. Now that we have raised 40m already in sales, we have no need to sell unless we receive the fee we want. Wouldn't read too much into the odds, either. How many people are betting lots of money on Ismaila Sarr's next club.
Perhaps. But the Twitter activity has increased today. It just may be based on fact but we are talking about Twitter here. Bookies will ultimately cover their book. Increased betting and lower odds are not always based on anything substantial.
Yes, but again, 1/10 is a HUGE shift. If all odds were expected to shift like this has based on Twitter chat and rumours then there would be no market. Not sure why people are having such a hard time believing/accepting that it could well be because there's something in it.
If it’s £30m then Gino’s got himself a hattrick of f*** ups. We paid like £30/35m a year ago then at a guess a further £3.5m in wages and bonuses. To sell our best player and biggest chance of promotion after a year - where despite our terrible form and management, he managed to show his Premier League quality - just to break even (at best) would be insanity.
But it’s a market where I doubt anyone has put any substantial money on at all. One bet of a half decent amount is enough to fluctuate odds with no actual info to base it on? I could (if I could afford it) go and put £10,000 on it and the chances are they would suspend the betting or push it to 1/100. I’m not saying the bookies don’t know something. But there are a few variables that could have pushed the odds in that manner, that’s all. There could be something in it. But there could also not be. At this moment, you seem the more insistent on your argument?
Well it fits with the club placing their tease showing Sarr training today. As I said at the time, it's a sure sign he's off imminently.
If there’s a fire-sale, genuinely in disbelief that the clubs social media team haven’t been the first out the door...
I think he'll go to Liverpool at some point this window, and obviously it has been a large shift, but there is no option for him to stay at Watford in those odds like there are with some bookies. Can't imagine there's much money on him going to the other clubs listed, so a few decent bets today would probably be enough to drop the odds significantly
I seem more insistent because the odds suddenly shifting to 1/10 favour what I'm saying. He is now heavily backed to join Liverpool, on the back of endless rumours and speculation and being a quality of player never likely to play for a club at this level, therefore I strongly believe something has happened and the bookies know about it. People seem desperate to insist it's nothing and I can only assume it's because they don't want him to go.
As someone else mentioned, Hughton was 1/5 to be our next manager at one point. Liverpool fans read the stories of them closing in on Sarr, none of the reliable sources suggest it's very close but some dodgy ones are hyping it up, they all stick a few quid on, Skybet cover their backsides. Betting odds are usually one step ahead of wikipedia pages when it comes to reliability.
What point are you trying to make? Liverpool come in for any of our players, the club won't stand in his way, and he'd be a fool to say no. Good for him, good for us. We move on. Or do you see this as some kind stick to beat the club with?
I'm simply making the point that I believe it's likely that there is now something more substantial to it all than just rumours, as I've already said, more than once. Of course people are dying to jump on me and put words in my mouth, though. Yawn.
30 million wouldn't even be a profit ! Almost be showing we are that desperate for money. And Sarr has said he wants to stay .
This is all part of Liverpool’s tactic to tap him up. They know the game they are playing. They won’t actually bid until the final week of the transfer window, probably deadline day. This is being leaked from their PR agent. Give a couple of local rags a scoop that we are interested in signing him, we know Watford want in EXCESS of £40mil, so just put a figure around that. Stir it up, our fans will jump on board and this will start to put pressure on Watford, Sarr and a his agent. We won’t bid until they lower their price so we will use any underhand tactic possible to make that happen. Get Sarr’s agent to whisper in his ear, turn his head and make him down tools. Again. Liverpool have not made a bid at all!!
We absolutely do need to sell still, we've only made about £25m this summer (the rest of the Doucoure money will come in instalments). There's a roughly £50m gap between our PL income and what we'll get in the Championship, then on top of that add on the £15m we're missing out on due to rebates to Sky and missing gate receipts. Hopefully that money will come from the likes of Deulofeu and Pereyra rather than Sarr, but if offers aren't forthcoming for them, it's bye bye Sarr
Highly likely to be something more substantial than rumours. Its odds on he's going to go to a big club this window. We always knew that. So will Del. The upside is they bring in £65m and if we go 352 then neither player is a loss to the system.
While I agree partially, and I’ve been semi-critical of the fee’s for Doucoure and Estupinan, - based on nothing at all, weirdly I think Sarr is the one player that we won’t compromise our price on. I think he has a price and it’s up to clubs to meet it. While I accept we can’t be idealistic, we know our owner doesn’t like Liverpool’s antics because of Zielinski - even after my recent question of faith in the then, I still think they would take a dim view of Liverpool playing games. But to what extent we can do much about it, god knows.
If we persist with 5-3-2 I really don't think it's the end of the world for Sarr to go for £35m+. We all know he's too good for the Championship and covering the cost we've spent on him considering the dramatic change in circumstances over the last year isn't the worst outcome. Would it be below his potential market value in other circumstances? Yes. Will he go on to be worth twice that? Probably. But it will transform our financial position now, making it much easier to strengthen those areas of the team where we are weak (and where many have been complaining we aren't competing adequately in the transfer market) with players more suited to the way Ivic wants to play. The hope, on the flip side, is that if we played with wingers or wide forwards we would get to see Sarr, Suarez and Joao Pedro as a three, which could be outrageous in this division. As I say, I think its most likely Sarr goes which I'm philosophical about but a guy can dream right?
We won’t budge on his valuation. Not at all! We want more than £40mil. Not £40mil. Whoever buys him will not get him for £40mil or less. It will literally be £40mil + £5-10mil in add ons. That’s the only way he leaves. These prices of £30mil with £10mil added on, £36mil + £5mil add ons etc, are all nonsense and completely made up. Just hilarious that everyone on social media is trying to be ITK. Throw out a good guess and someone is bound to be right. Liverpool haven’t even made a bid yet! They can be interested all they want, interest means nothing. These stories are nothing but Liverpool PR pressure.
It'll be fun if 3 at the back doesn't end up working long term and we don't have a single winger in the squad to change things up. Cleverley wide right. I can see it now.
The Spurs and Boro games were more of a 3-4-2-1. The 2 were relatively narrow but seemed to have license to drift across the pitch when we were attacking. I see no reason that Sarr couldn’t do a good job there (he looked good 2nd half v Newcastle at home with more freedom) or perhaps Ivic could just convert those 2 to more conventional wingers with JP/Sema comfortable to do that on the left.
I'm sure that could be done, but I'm a bit of a purist about players being played in their natural positions and coaching them to be the best they can be rather than try and convert them into something that doesn't suit them. I feel particularly strongly about it when you have a young player with a talent as potent as Sarrs. He would be such a cut above in the Championship that you should be playing to his strengths and to a degree building a team around him.
